Igonlayher
0x924f93eadfb66d1b271bdeddb9dd229080d0134b
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $802.5k
- Markets traded
- 91
- Open portfolio
- $1.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded91
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.820 | $800.32 | −$19.52 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.790 | 0.845 | $166.54 | +$10.84 |
| Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.660 | $52.72 | −$1.60 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.5 on April 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.15 |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? · No | 0.932 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$98.12 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.43 |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 56%? · Yes | 0.239 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.48 |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? · Down | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.96 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? · Yes | 0.307 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$275.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$478.04at 0.098Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%?
- +$293.48at 0.420Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$291.35at 0.674Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?
- +$249.90at 0.510Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$226.20at 0.220Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 07:04 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.7899999992 | $155.70 |
| 05-05 16:46 | Will Paloma Valencia win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9844140387 | $50.40 |
| 05-05 16:43 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.932 | $98.12 |
| 05-05 16:42 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.50 |
| 05-05 16:42 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.05 | $3.73 |
| 04-06 00:53 | Trump approval Up or Down this week? | BUY | 0.68 | $42.41 |
| 04-06 00:53 | Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2122140625 | $12.73 |
| 04-06 00:52 | Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.5 on April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.0348760938 | $2.06 |
| 04-06 00:52 | Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.0231834375 | $1.37 |
| 04-06 00:32 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $819.84 |
| 03-16 01:07 | Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility? | BUY | 0.73 | $105.57 |
| 03-16 01:07 | US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | BUY | 0.2529668966 | $36.68 |
| 03-15 14:11 | Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility? | BUY | 0.6777592926 | $90.44 |
| 03-15 14:11 | US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | BUY | 0.31 | $41.37 |
| 03-15 13:39 | US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | BUY | 0.3251219512 | $13.33 |