0x921901f508e304b05193d5b7acb01bae13005285
- Realised P&L
- $-162.12
- Volume
- $20.6k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $265.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.695 | $91.38 | +$16.44 |
| Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.361 | 0.375 | $76.11 | +$2.81 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.543 | 0.685 | $48.73 | +$10.07 |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.301 | 0.375 | $47.85 | +$9.47 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? · Yes | 0.084 | 0.051 | $1.57 | −$1.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$90.87at 0.666Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$63.84at 0.710Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
- +$52.99at 0.851Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$46.70at 0.840Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$42.19at 0.758Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 10:44 | Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999946 | $11.54 |
| 09-14 08:49 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.2443264497 | $4.00 |
| 09-14 08:44 | Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.3562578964 | $61.76 |
| 09-14 08:44 | Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.5955377244 | $78.30 |
| 09-14 08:43 | Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $3.00 |
| 09-13 15:21 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.543393812 | $38.66 |
| 09-13 15:21 | Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.3249607276 | $39.30 |
| 09-13 12:54 | Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.5699999985 | $152.74 |
| 09-13 11:14 | Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.3094423753 | $58.99 |
| 09-13 09:46 | Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.4096967898 | $103.50 |
| 09-12 10:53 | Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.5611848658 | $82.76 |
| 09-12 08:00 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.3094572368 | $9.41 |
| 09-12 07:54 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.323534208 | $78.17 |
| 09-09 20:44 | Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.306792549 | $19.13 |
| 09-09 20:41 | Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.4590518217 | $20.29 |