0x91c1cc2ab38cc5561879855fd7e233e7e9296450
0x91c1cc2ab38cc5561879855fd7e233e7e9296450
- Realised P&L
- $12.20
- Volume
- $441.78
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $9.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.183 | 0.029 | $7.68 | −$41.78 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.224 | 0.183 | $0.82 | −$0.18 |
| Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.065 | $0.59 | −$0.41 |
| Will Alberta join the US? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.024 | $0.24 | −$0.76 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.009 | $0.16 | −$0.84 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.045 | $0.14 | −$0.86 |
| Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.014 | $0.13 | −$0.87 |
| Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.11at 0.426Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$3.82at 0.440U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
- +$3.76at 0.210US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$2.33at 0.300US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
- +$2.17at 0.580US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-24 02:25 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.65 |
| 05-24 02:25 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.81 |
| 03-01 03:05 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $33.00 |
| 02-28 16:16 | Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.1409511008 | $3.00 |
| 02-28 16:15 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.179999958 | $3.00 |
| 02-28 16:15 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 02-28 16:12 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.223999862 | $1.00 |
| 02-22 23:05 | U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? | BUY | 0.4399999707 | $3.00 |
| 02-22 08:02 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1399999787 | $5.00 |
| 02-21 07:55 | US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 02-21 07:55 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 02-21 02:47 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $1.00 |
| 02-20 01:30 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999712 | $3.00 |
| 02-20 01:30 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999712 | $3.00 |
| 02-19 18:17 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5799999265 | $3.00 |