JohnP92
0x9163b65317deaab8b3b681c5a7a5c261d99b82ae
- Realised P&L
- $9.7k
- Volume
- $1.03M
- Markets traded
- 826
- Open portfolio
- $28.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded826
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.9kat 0.624Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?
- +$1.7kat 0.169Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.5kat 0.023Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 25% and 30%?
- +$1.4kat 0.672Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
- +$1.3kat 0.120Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 06:50 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.023 | $0.47 |
| 08-04 06:47 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%? | BUY | 0.5992 | $89.88 |
| 08-03 22:35 | Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 25–30%? | BUY | 0.6871890726 | $172.06 |
| 08-03 19:09 | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.07 | $14.00 |
| 08-02 17:05 | Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? | BUY | 0.522 | $52.20 |
| 08-02 16:48 | Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? | BUY | 0.659 | $131.80 |
| 08-02 16:45 | Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | BUY | 0.17 | $8.36 |
| 08-02 16:29 | Will Monty Fritts win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.0161398319 | $5.88 |
| 08-02 16:02 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | BUY | 0.7 | $105.00 |
| 07-31 07:31 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.0491198922 | $5.47 |
| 07-31 07:30 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%? | BUY | 0.6745214114 | $137.82 |
| 07-31 07:29 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%? | BUY | 0.098 | $8.04 |
| 07-31 07:25 | Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? | BUY | 0.058989 | $29.49 |
| 07-31 07:21 | Will Philip Sarnecki win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by 5–10%? | BUY | 0.012 | $1.75 |
| 07-31 07:19 | Will Ty Masterson win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by 20–25%? | BUY | 0.0223600536 | $2.67 |