misaki
0x912dba47ef9154eda4b5d8a30fae45d118615f1a
- Realised P&L
- $995.89
- Volume
- $17.2k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $971.55
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5? · Yes | 0.995 | 0.998 | $524.89 | +$1.81 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.952 | 0.650 | $234.28 | −$108.57 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.907 | 0.996 | $205.05 | +$18.23 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.042 | $7.32 | +$3.62 |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage · PARIVISION | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.513 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$61.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$281.15at 0.741Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?
- +$208.39at 0.753Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?
- +$123.56at 0.722Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?
- +$122.85at 0.852Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?
- +$91.59at 0.851Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 19:23 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5? | BUY | 0.995 | $289.49 |
| 10-05 19:00 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | BUY | 0.76 | $16.72 |
| 10-05 18:20 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.953 | $171.54 |
| 10-05 18:19 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.952 | $76.16 |
| 10-05 18:19 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $95.15 |
| 10-05 18:14 | Will Trump say "Maduro" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska? | BUY | 0.77 | $38.50 |
| 10-05 18:11 | Will Trump say "Independent" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska? | BUY | 0.74 | $50.20 |
| 10-05 17:47 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5? | BUY | 0.994 | $233.59 |
| 10-05 13:46 | Counter-Strike: 9z vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.94 | $188.00 |
| 10-05 12:12 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.907 | $186.82 |
| 10-05 12:11 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.986 | $22.58 |
| 10-05 11:22 | Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | BUY | 0.45 | $36.00 |
| 10-05 10:32 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $167.83 |
| 10-05 09:19 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.839 | $86.44 |
| 10-05 09:13 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.899445381 | $78.96 |