0x911f505f76937b7e2c84dc3a5938adb09007d991
0x911f505f76937b7e2c84dc3a5938adb09007d991
- Realised P&L
- $-2.05
- Volume
- $337.58
- Markets traded
- 147
- Open portfolio
- $10.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded147
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? · No | 0.330 | 0.760 | $2.30 | +$1.30 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.935 | $1.44 | +$0.44 |
| Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.700 | 0.855 | $1.22 | +$0.22 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $174 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.930 | $1.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $147 Week of October 19 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.290 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.690 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25? · No | 0.380 | 0.385 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 20? · No | 0.270 | 0.175 | $0.65 | −$0.35 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.290 | $0.40 | −$0.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.32at 0.237Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
- +$2.97at 0.258Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of August 24 2026?
- +$2.82at 0.268Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $630 Week of September 14 2026?
- +$2.79at 0.270S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 14?
- +$2.31at 0.308S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 20:11 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 12:05 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $147 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 04:05 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $174 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 20:04 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 12:02 | Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 23:15 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 15:00 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 20? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 12:33 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 04:04 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 18:12 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 09:38 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 00:37 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 15:38 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 15:36 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 14? | BUY | 0.2619999927 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 07:34 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $540 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |