PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

geph

0x90c80c2f44cea8f5bee8e8b2db1c3e8560f19617

Realised P&L
$-2.2k
Volume
$1.61M
Markets traded
303
Open portfolio
$4.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded303
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration28.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration22.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · No0.7680.695$914.68$96.80
Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes? · Yes0.8130.825$494.74+$6.99
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0570.030$433.82$374.88
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026? · Yes0.7650.755$411.09$5.43
Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes0.1920.180$261.60$18.07
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1900.195$227.73+$5.84
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0390.030$207.50$56.18
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0690.045$177.82$95.48
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0270.029$155.70+$5.97
Will the Miami Heat be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? · Yes0.1050.085$105.16$24.94
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes0.2000.205$102.50+$2.50
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes0.7800.425$85.00$71.00
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0150.011$84.00$36.00
Will the Boston Celtics be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? · Yes0.1380.130$83.31$4.91
Will the Washington Wizards be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? · Yes0.0400.035$81.65$10.35

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-13 17:58Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?BUY0.78$38.76
09-13 17:55Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?SELL0.176544$35.31
09-11 19:11Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?BUY0.17$34.00
09-11 09:51Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?BUY0.17$68.00
09-06 22:17Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?SELL0.002$11.85
08-22 09:14Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?SELL0.0830029931$277.31
08-12 11:33Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.3$94.20
08-10 10:24Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.32$2.24
07-29 19:30Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?BUY0.86$86.00
07-23 10:28Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?BUY0.137$54.80
07-23 08:41Will Carsten Linnemann be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?SELL0.01$0.16
07-18 22:44France vs. England: Team to WinBUY0.675$67.50
07-15 20:36England vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceBUY0.755$151.00
07-14 20:20France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceSELL0.12$36.00
07-10 19:13Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?BUY0.5875$58.75