geph
0x90c80c2f44cea8f5bee8e8b2db1c3e8560f19617
- Realised P&L
- $-2.2k
- Volume
- $1.61M
- Markets traded
- 303
- Open portfolio
- $4.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded303
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.509Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$543.03at 0.205Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$480.00at 0.840Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?
- +$238.63at 0.011Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$194.84at 0.685Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 17:58 | Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.78 | $38.76 |
| 09-13 17:55 | Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.176544 | $35.31 |
| 09-11 19:11 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $34.00 |
| 09-11 09:51 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $68.00 |
| 09-06 22:17 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.002 | $11.85 |
| 08-22 09:14 | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.0830029931 | $277.31 |
| 08-12 11:33 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.3 | $94.20 |
| 08-10 10:24 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.24 |
| 07-29 19:30 | Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 07-23 10:28 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.137 | $54.80 |
| 07-23 08:41 | Will Carsten Linnemann be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.16 |
| 07-18 22:44 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.675 | $67.50 |
| 07-15 20:36 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.755 | $151.00 |
| 07-14 20:20 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.12 | $36.00 |
| 07-10 19:13 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | BUY | 0.5875 | $58.75 |