0x9051f5203F24f3561D6858A53A6B07b7E7d117Ab-1770385793449
0x9051f5203f24f3561d6858a53a6b07b7e7d117ab
- Realised P&L
- $84.17
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $154.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.725 | $126.59 | +$16.59 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.875 | $10.94 | +$0.94 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.670 | $10.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.524 | 0.380 | $7.24 | −$2.76 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.599 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? · No | 0.061 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.27at 0.410US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$32.86at 0.770Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$26.51at 0.430Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$16.82at 0.629Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
- +$15.60at 0.560Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 06:55 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.6299999986 | $110.00 |
| 09-25 06:54 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.152 | $6.33 |
| 09-25 06:54 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $5.00 |
| 09-25 06:54 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.16 |
| 09-14 06:44 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 06:44 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 06:43 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.6699999611 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 06:43 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $10.00 |
| 08-28 12:05 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.769999996 | $110.00 |
| 08-28 12:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $25.00 |
| 08-28 12:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET | BUY | 0.9399285654 | $25.00 |
| 08-28 12:03 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.71 | $10.76 |
| 08-28 12:03 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $10.83 |
| 08-28 12:03 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.886 | $11.04 |
| 08-28 12:03 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $11.51 |