0x904d541770e94852730d6c1754bc8935cc539ab0
- Realised P&L
- $-4.95
- Volume
- $44.02
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $6.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.795 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.480 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.640 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6? · Up | 0.600 | 0.585 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.205 | $0.73 | −$0.27 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.340 | $0.58 | −$0.42 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.310 | 0.135 | $0.44 | −$0.56 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.085 | $0.37 | −$0.63 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.750 | 0.145 | $0.19 | −$0.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.78at 0.360SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$0.52at 0.660Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?
- +$0.45at 0.690Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$-1.00at 0.210WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on August 5?
- +$-1.00at 0.410Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 11:03 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 02:26 | Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4699998778 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 18:08 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 10:05 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on August 5? | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 00:59 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.3599998704 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 16:59 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 08:51 | Will Trump say "Tax" 30+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 00:50 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 16:38 | Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 16:33 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.3099998295 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 16:33 | Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 16:31 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799998432 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 08:30 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $204 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 21:14 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 11:51 | Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4099998237 | $1.00 |