J.D.L
0x902c4454d7e1f2c6db31d55f7c1b3820ba219d51
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $51.6k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $562.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.960 | $336.13 | +$17.34 |
| Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.875 | $226.04 | +$9.04 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? · Yes | 0.273 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Knicks vs. Spurs · Spurs | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.735 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026? · No | 0.932 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? · Yes | 0.191 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.90 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
| Rockets vs. 76ers · Rockets | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.90 |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.672 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$351.22at 0.820Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?
- +$249.07at 0.888Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?
- +$212.69at 0.696US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$166.41at 0.835Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?
- +$128.57at 0.700Iran leadership change by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 14:37 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.770423444 | $200.00 |
| 06-22 08:38 | Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.7346736144 | $40.00 |
| 06-21 14:31 | Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | BUY | 0.7899999997 | $100.00 |
| 06-19 21:54 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.3941224511 | $187.68 |
| 06-18 15:30 | Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | SELL | 0.23 | $95.85 |
| 06-14 21:31 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6722727809 | $50.00 |
| 06-14 21:31 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $76.94 |
| 06-09 16:19 | Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | BUY | 0.8590401783 | $358.00 |
| 06-09 16:16 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999995 | $300.00 |
| 06-09 16:04 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7798440302 | $400.00 |
| 06-09 16:03 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $400.00 |
| 06-04 02:31 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999999 | $300.00 |
| 06-04 02:27 | Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.64 | $50.00 |
| 05-29 17:43 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY | 0.8688506443 | $400.00 |
| 05-09 17:48 | Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | BUY | 0.8399999998 | $217.00 |