0x8F88a166bC465Eae2b1078bFf960FEb77aC8c0fb-1766354105911
0x8f88a166bc465eae2b1078bff960feb77ac8c0fb
- Realised P&L
- $-453.16
- Volume
- $41.6k
- Markets traded
- 128
- Open portfolio
- $18.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded128
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$221.33at 0.140US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$95.05at 0.520Will Trump say "Iran" during College Football Roundtable?
- +$82.65at 0.266Will Trump say "Gay" this week? (March 29)
- +$78.59at 0.640Will Trump say "Hormuz" this week? (March 22)
- +$55.90at 0.720Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 20:36 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0307406558 | $8.67 |
| 09-13 19:42 | Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 05-29 10:13 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | BUY | 0.18 | $27.00 |
| 05-29 10:13 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL | 0.9345131714 | $27.32 |
| 05-22 09:29 | Will Trump say "Recession" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? | BUY | 0.1499999802 | $5.68 |
| 05-21 11:04 | Trump kiss by May 31? | BUY | 0.001 | $4.44 |
| 05-21 11:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET | BUY | 0.849999983 | $5.00 |
| 05-21 10:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 05-21 10:43 | Will Trump say "Chair" this week? | BUY | 0.2466473953 | $5.00 |
| 05-21 10:42 | Will Trump say "Turkey" or "Turkiye" in May? | BUY | 0.1819999693 | $4.75 |
| 05-21 10:41 | Will Trump say "Asshole" in May? | BUY | 0.265228509 | $5.00 |
| 05-21 10:30 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY | 0.14 | $9.80 |
| 05-21 10:14 | Trump kiss by May 31? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.70 |
| 05-17 18:33 | Will Trump say "Jesus" or "Christ" this week? | BUY | 0.4411764589 | $10.00 |
| 05-17 07:50 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY | 0.6499999932 | $19.00 |