WilliamLawrence4766
0x8f859f00ca2f081ba9211d18b0efdeee9cd4e5a3
- Realised P&L
- $1.7k
- Volume
- $276.7k
- Markets traded
- 364
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded364
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$815.40at 0.420Will América FC win on 2026-04-12?
- +$784.89at 0.160Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-02-05?
- +$407.55at 0.300Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-04-11?
- +$388.74at 0.160Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score
- +$313.61at 0.600Will "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-13 16:49 | Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? (April 19) | SELL | 0.64 | $19.84 |
| 04-13 16:21 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? | SELL | 0.22 | $205.48 |
| 04-13 14:46 | Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? (April 19) | BUY | 0.77 | $23.87 |
| 04-13 14:16 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? | BUY | 0.23 | $214.82 |
| 04-13 09:43 | T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Most Sixes Afghanistan Winner | SELL | 0.011 | $7.34 |
| 04-13 03:53 | Will Starmer say "Renewables" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | SELL | 0.52 | $503.36 |
| 04-12 22:48 | Will Starmer say "Renewables" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | BUY | 0.74 | $716.32 |
| 04-12 16:32 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? | SELL | 0.64 | $96.00 |
| 04-12 15:53 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.37 | $4.07 |
| 04-12 15:51 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.37 | $256.41 |
| 04-12 15:40 | Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-03-17? | SELL | 0.641 | $762.15 |
| 04-12 14:27 | Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-03-17? | BUY | 0.672 | $799.01 |
| 04-12 14:23 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? | BUY | 0.67 | $100.50 |
| 04-12 13:01 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.36 | $253.44 |
| 04-11 23:38 | Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $748.92 |