PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

DumplingBMF

0x8f69269039b9a401de28a38c2f1c3001364b7df1

Realised P&L
$269.7k
Volume
$24.86M
Markets traded
3,762
Open portfolio
$54.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded3,762
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration42.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · No0.8060.895$23.0k+$2.3k
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · No0.6860.755$4.5k+$411.76
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? · Yes0.5450.225$2.3k−$3.2k
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026? · No0.4660.966$2.2k+$1.1k
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? · Yes0.4980.475$2.1k−$104.65
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? · Yes0.5840.931$2.0k+$757.92
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? · No0.9280.969$2.0k+$84.24
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3490.085$1.8k−$5.6k
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6030.065$1.6k−$13.4k
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1660.190$1.4k+$174.13
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? · Yes0.4920.770$1.3k+$464.95
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · No0.6330.905$927.65+$278.63
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? · Yes0.4470.090$662.25−$2.6k
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5180.110$555.74−$2.1k
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31? · No0.9190.934$549.43+$8.63

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-02 02:44Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 - Map 2 WinnerBUY0.59$387.92
11-02 02:25Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 - Map 2 WinnerBUY0.59$35.40
11-02 02:19Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.7331270998$1.2k
11-01 00:49UFC Fight Night: Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)BUY0.52$520.00
11-01 00:39Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.5766666667$25.95
11-01 00:38Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.492559972$351.32
11-01 00:37Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by December 31, 2026?BUY0.8710344828$252.60
11-01 00:29UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Main Card)BUY0.91$182.00
11-01 00:29UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Main Card)BUY0.91$546.00
11-01 00:25UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Main Card)BUY0.73$146.00
11-01 00:16Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?BUY0.9659004589$122.07
10-31 23:44Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.76$606.69
10-31 01:13Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?BUY0.2821238491$491.49
10-31 01:11Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?BUY0.999$28.58
10-31 01:10Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?BUY0.987841594$178.98