gooduckx
0x8f635c18d7d60c92d6db5b650b60a071c9a1c819
- Realised P&L
- $-67.30
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 118
- Open portfolio
- $61.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded118
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.710 | $14.20 | +$4.60 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.695 | $9.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.865 | $8.65 | +$1.55 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.641 | 0.549 | $8.57 | −$1.43 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · No | 0.530 | 0.655 | $6.55 | +$1.25 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.160 | $3.20 | −$3.00 |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.009 | $3.19 | −$0.56 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.066 | $2.75 | +$1.75 |
| Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.440 | $2.20 | −$0.85 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.076 | $1.45 | −$0.43 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.067 | $1.16 | −$1.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.52at 0.738Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?
- +$2.66at 0.734Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
- +$2.65at 0.198Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
- +$2.56at 0.744Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
- +$1.98at 0.802Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 01:40 | Ethereum Up or Down - September 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 09-19 05:40 | Ethereum Up or Down - September 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET | BUY | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 09-19 03:10 | XRP Up or Down - September 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 09-19 01:42 | XRP Up or Down - September 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET | BUY | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 09-19 01:25 | Dogecoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET | BUY | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 09-19 01:25 | XRP Up or Down - September 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET | BUY | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 09-19 01:10 | XRP Up or Down - September 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET | BUY | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 09-18 23:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET | BUY | 0.83 | $8.30 |
| 09-18 23:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET | BUY | 0.78 | $7.80 |
| 09-18 22:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $8.00 |
| 09-18 22:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.82 | $8.20 |
| 09-18 22:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $8.00 |
| 09-18 21:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET | BUY | 0.80185 | $8.02 |
| 09-18 21:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET | BUY | 0.85 | $8.50 |
| 09-18 20:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $8.00 |