0x8f5A6C0ef81cb34fc3464B0563D8A69a02A7A704-1782552495775
0x8f5a6c0ef81cb34fc3464b0563d8a69a02a7a704
- Realised P&L
- $188.25
- Volume
- $6.1k
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $455.04
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.975 | $221.59 | +$21.59 |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo · No | 0.942 | 0.974 | $155.06 | +$5.06 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.967 | $44.44 | +$4.44 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.940 | 0.969 | $20.61 | +$0.61 |
| Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.340 | $5.57 | −$4.43 |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.060 | $4.29 | −$5.71 |
| Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.275 | $3.48 | −$6.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.35at 0.527Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?
- +$31.32at 0.247Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?
- +$29.77at 0.256Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
- +$24.13at 0.300Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
- +$23.18at 0.567Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 10:35 | Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo | BUY | 0.95 | $120.00 |
| 08-16 06:43 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.05 |
| 08-04 12:36 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999755 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 12:36 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999759 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 12:36 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.1862058692 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 12:35 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.0359999933 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 08:39 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.389999986 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 08:39 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.4699999915 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 08:39 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999786 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 08:38 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999931 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 08:25 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 08:24 | Will Maia Sandu visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999797 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 08:24 | Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 08:24 | Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999994 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 08:23 | Will Keith Kellogg visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.699999993 | $10.00 |