theKing46
0x8f1b2fcd0f5b5b02a34bf2eec516863df3b52ee6
- Realised P&L
- $-791.87
- Volume
- $23.6k
- Markets traded
- 152
- Open portfolio
- $178.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded152
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.612 | 0.305 | $97.29 | −$97.91 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.288 | 0.545 | $28.41 | +$13.41 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.633 | 0.160 | $26.45 | −$78.55 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.180 | $7.20 | −$5.20 |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.285 | $5.70 | −$7.30 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.170 | $5.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.038 | $3.80 | −$8.20 |
| Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.090 | $2.70 | −$2.10 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.045 | $1.61 | −$3.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.08at 0.510Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?
- +$81.96at 0.716Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?
- +$71.97at 0.396Will Trump visit China by March 31?
- +$71.05at 0.738Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$67.82at 0.489US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 11:14 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in August? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.03 |
| 08-14 08:22 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $316 Week of August 10 2026? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.20 |
| 08-14 08:21 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of August 10 2026? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.11 |
| 07-27 16:01 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.71 | $7.10 |
| 07-19 21:45 | Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.03 |
| 07-19 21:45 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 07-19 14:44 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.408 | $5.23 |
| 07-15 13:01 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.197 | $10.10 |
| 07-14 20:43 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.29 | $8.05 |
| 07-14 20:35 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in July? | SELL | 0.1813529412 | $2.77 |
| 07-14 20:35 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in July? | SELL | 0.091 | $2.61 |
| 07-14 13:38 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $120 in July? | SELL | 0.41 | $3.42 |
| 07-10 07:42 | Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5099999796 | $5.00 |
| 07-10 07:38 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999759 | $5.00 |
| 07-09 07:37 | Will Lionel Messi score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6799999946 | $10.00 |