williwilli
0x8f155824f9799608e42221b0e64b6775f602f295
- Realised P&L
- $579.44
- Volume
- $443.6k
- Markets traded
- 2,209
- Open portfolio
- $464.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,209
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration26.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.165 | $110.01 | +$10.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? · No | 0.330 | 0.345 | $104.55 | +$4.55 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.458 | 0.482 | $94.79 | +$4.80 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · No | 0.460 | 0.495 | $86.09 | +$6.09 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.325 | 0.275 | $50.76 | −$9.24 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · No | 0.160 | 0.145 | $18.13 | −$1.88 |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · No | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.10 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET · Up | 0.458 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.267Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
- +$989.98at 0.010Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
- +$918.72at 0.011Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
- +$762.91at 0.517Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
- +$564.92at 0.010Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 21:46 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.3299999989 | $100.00 |
| 10-14 16:56 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.4599999986 | $80.00 |
| 10-14 16:56 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.16 | $20.00 |
| 10-12 14:28 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3099999978 | $40.00 |
| 10-12 14:28 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4484669874 | $60.00 |
| 10-07 19:45 | Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $73.88 |
| 10-07 19:44 | Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999997 | $100.00 |
| 10-07 13:57 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4769376626 | $29.99 |
| 10-07 13:56 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3599999971 | $20.00 |
| 09-06 16:32 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.2799999494 | $3.10 |
| 09-04 17:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999796 | $5.00 |
| 09-04 17:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |
| 09-04 17:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET | BUY | 0.4399999648 | $5.00 |
| 09-04 17:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET | BUY | 0.3299999591 | $5.00 |
| 08-30 22:57 | Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2010541864 | $23.82 |