0x8ed51345d8b37504b2909c0b531d62382cad62c3
0x8ed51345d8b37504b2909c0b531d62382cad62c3
- Realised P&L
- $-13.54
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $205.41
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.208 | 0.222 | $106.49 | +$6.49 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.793 | 0.778 | $49.09 | −$0.91 |
| Will Leonardo Montañez Castro win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election? · Yes | 0.503 | 0.440 | $26.23 | −$3.77 |
| Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.480 | $23.61 | −$6.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-1.13at 0.992Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
- +$-1.52at 0.970Trump out as President before 2027?
- +$-10.90at 0.051Trump out as President before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 22:11 | Will Leonardo Montañez Castro win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election? | BUY | 0.5033308591 | $30.00 |
| 09-30 22:10 | Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election? | BUY | 0.6099999984 | $30.00 |
| 09-30 21:58 | Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | SELL | 0.98 | $49.94 |
| 09-30 21:58 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.95 | $49.48 |
| 09-30 21:56 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.9599999877 | $50.00 |
| 09-30 21:54 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.04 | $40.00 |
| 09-30 21:47 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.05 | $50.00 |
| 09-30 21:43 | Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | BUY | 0.9809999998 | $50.00 |
| 09-30 21:40 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.7929999984 | $50.00 |
| 09-30 21:39 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2079999995 | $50.00 |
| 09-30 21:38 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2079999995 | $50.00 |