williamsrichard
0x8e984644579a01f32843aeacb4534b7b14c60a2e
- Realised P&L
- $-3.20
- Volume
- $13.9k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $56.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Solana reach $130 in October? · No | 0.910 | 0.945 | $18.16 | +$0.67 |
| Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.700 | $17.11 | −$0.24 |
| Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.720 | $10.86 | −$0.15 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.195 | $10.85 | −$24.19 |
| Australia vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 · Under | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$46.26at 0.634Will Fulham vs. Southampton end in a draw?
- +$22.62at 0.530New Mexico vs. Hawai'i: O/U 45.5
- +$19.02at 0.600Will Andorra win on 2026-09-27?
- +$10.64at 0.710Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
- +$6.55at 0.530Ethereum above $3,400 on December 27?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 07:29 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on September 15? | BUY | 0.8299999941 | $16.80 |
| 01-31 13:35 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9969997995 | $4.66 |
| 01-31 13:30 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | BUY | 0.998999995 | $11.93 |
| 01-30 15:31 | Will Opendoor reach $8.25 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.30 |
| 01-30 14:43 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.39 |
| 01-30 13:15 | Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $38.54 |
| 12-30 11:43 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.96 |
| 12-30 01:12 | Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.32 |
| 12-30 01:01 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.77 |
| 12-29 23:28 | Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $26.15 |
| 12-29 21:05 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | BUY | 0.9959999983 | $28.01 |
| 10-30 18:46 | Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.31 |
| 10-30 18:37 | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.62 |
| 09-29 09:36 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.17 |
| 09-29 00:52 | Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before October? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.17 |