alexsky
0x8e78878271452acb5a5be368d117baf181e7ea77
- Realised P&L
- $38.7k
- Volume
- $4.35M
- Markets traded
- 233
- Open portfolio
- $5.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded233
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? · Yes | 0.941 | 0.804 | $2.0k | −$335.38 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.862 | 0.895 | $1.6k | +$59.00 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.328 | 0.543 | $543.00 | +$215.00 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? · No | 0.848 | 0.959 | $514.66 | +$59.72 |
| Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.935 | $280.50 | +$34.50 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.840 | $167.98 | +$19.96 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.855 | 0.835 | $167.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No | 0.860 | 0.925 | $92.50 | +$6.50 |
| Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.334 | $34.06 | +$13.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.8kat 0.313Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$12.6kat 0.307Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$5.2kat 0.310Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$3.5kat 0.970Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
- +$2.6kat 0.277Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 07:03 | Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.1959134945 | $44.57 |
| 09-08 07:02 | Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.205 | $14.82 |
| 08-28 06:56 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $108.00 |
| 08-28 06:56 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $90.90 |
| 08-28 06:56 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | BUY | 0.899 | $269.70 |
| 08-12 11:54 | Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.996 | $0.10 |
| 08-10 13:05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $84.00 |
| 08-10 13:04 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $88.00 |
| 08-10 12:47 | Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? | BUY | 0.85 | $85.00 |
| 08-05 18:16 | Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? | BUY | 0.8450782637 | $200.00 |
| 08-05 14:14 | Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? | BUY | 0.8497135 | $169.94 |
| 07-22 13:46 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $113.22 |
| 07-22 13:45 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.739 | $34.81 |
| 07-13 09:44 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by July 31? | BUY | 0.7976273675 | $374.81 |
| 07-13 08:41 | Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | BUY | 0.462 | $46.20 |