Tarmac7163
0x8e6f9c6858ce51fb6411b80cc6c283ed58b693bd
- Realised P&L
- $-9.78
- Volume
- $487.86
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $5.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.27at 0.607Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
- +$1.66at 0.647Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
- +$0.73at 0.560OpenAI IPO before 2027?
- +$0.72at 0.580Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$0.34at 0.750No one announced as next James Bond?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 12:17 | Will John Malkovich be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.91 | $1.08 |
| 10-12 12:17 | Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | SELL | 0.991 | $1.34 |
| 10-12 12:17 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.965 | $1.75 |
| 06-11 12:29 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 06-11 12:27 | Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 06-06 07:58 | Will John Malkovich be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.00 |
| 06-06 07:56 | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 06-06 07:55 | Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |
| 06-06 07:52 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 06-06 07:51 | Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 06-06 07:50 | Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? | BUY | 0.29999997 | $5.00 |
| 06-06 07:49 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.599999976 | $5.00 |
| 06-06 07:49 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 06-06 07:48 | Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 06-06 07:47 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.945 | $2.00 |