ShiftyShu
0x8e5bcb984d13856206af1d2a6f6a9dd8bef73dea
- Realised P&L
- $-568.57
- Volume
- $10.0k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $448.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration96.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.665 | $266.00 | +$34.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.485 | $182.80 | −$20.73 |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.10 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.07 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.382 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$34.90at 0.860Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
- +$5.60at 0.720Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
- +$-1.9kat 0.701Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 18:26 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.58 | $232.00 |
| 09-14 18:22 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.14 | $466.20 |
| 08-28 08:00 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6899999892 | $6.36 |
| 08-28 07:58 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.69 | $2.3k |
| 06-18 16:54 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.36 | $540.00 |
| 06-17 11:37 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? | BUY | 0.16 | $4.07 |
| 06-17 11:35 | Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $20.85 |
| 06-17 11:31 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | BUY | 0.8602443577 | $171.90 |
| 06-17 11:29 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.042 | $2.10 |
| 06-17 11:22 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.4392883863 | $103.34 |