0xEFfd26673Bcc8c1268490E76296fc9fB9e600265-1778640299150
0x8e40e6a63ddba995a9d29603655833e6a5c2c7c0
- Realised P&L
- $28.76
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $56.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.01at 0.460Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?
- +$8.51at 0.580Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- +$2.50at 0.006Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by at least 80%?
- +$2.40at 0.920Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?
- +$2.05at 0.830Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 21:11 | Michigan Senate favorite on November 2? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 10-31 20:17 | Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2? | BUY | 0.0157932385 | $1.00 |
| 10-31 03:34 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $3.00 |
| 10-31 03:32 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999884 | $2.00 |
| 10-31 03:30 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.43 |
| 10-31 03:27 | Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.0374384234 | $2.00 |
| 10-31 03:26 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $24.00 |
| 10-25 01:05 | Will Conservative win the second most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election? | BUY | 0.0609999986 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 20:29 | Will Conservative win the second most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election? | BUY | 0.0668936055 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 19:54 | Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 10-24 19:52 | Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 10-24 19:46 | Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 10-23 22:59 | Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.044 | $1.32 |
| 10-23 22:58 | Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.044 | $2.42 |
| 10-23 22:54 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.8299999992 | $10.80 |