PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x8deCCbd793155A8A041c881747030fA59caC7E3f-1734271548314

0x8deccbd793155a8a041c881747030fa59cac7e3f

Realised P&L
$-417.76
Volume
$42.3k
Markets traded
18
Open portfolio
$129.75

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded18
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration48.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample4 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration97.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.7520.750$127.03$0.30
Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.0250.016$2.72$1.60
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? · Yes0.0300.000$0.00$3.07
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00$1.00
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7? · Yes0.0190.000$0.00$1.18
Will Trump say 'retard' or 'retarded' during the 2025 State of the Union? · Yes0.0080.000$0.00$1.60
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 14-21? · Yes0.0050.000$0.00$1.00
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 14-21? · Yes0.0070.000$0.00$1.40
Thunder vs. Heat · Heat0.4500.000$0.00$218.97
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00$9.00
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? · Yes0.0030.000$0.00$1.20
Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00$1.00
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? · No0.0210.000$0.00$250.56
Will another party win the most seats in the next German election? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-24 02:10Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?BUY0.756$40.35
08-24 02:09Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026?BUY0.0306666667$2.76
08-24 02:09Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?BUY0.749862069$86.98
08-24 02:08Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026?BUY0.0195$1.56
07-26 23:53Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 1.5T yuan?BUY0.9540459536$112.20
01-31 04:26Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?BUY0.879$113.49
10-19 01:09Xi Jinping out in 2025?BUY0.93$105.55
10-02 03:37Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October?BUY0.03$3.07
10-02 03:36Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?BUY0.09$9.00
08-26 13:10Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?BUY0.77$90.56
03-20 13:54Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? BUY0.003$1.20
03-05 01:31Will Trump say 'retard' or 'retarded' during the 2025 State of the Union?BUY0.008$1.60
03-05 01:15Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7?BUY0.019$0.42
02-20 08:31Will another party win the most seats in the next German election?BUY0.001$1.00
02-20 08:31Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election?BUY0.001$1.00