0x8deCCbd793155A8A041c881747030fA59caC7E3f-1734271548314
0x8deccbd793155a8a041c881747030fa59cac7e3f
- Realised P&L
- $-417.76
- Volume
- $42.3k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $129.75
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$27.05at 0.770Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$15.62at 0.879Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?
- +$7.94at 0.930Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$5.20at 0.956Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 1.5T yuan?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 02:10 | Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.756 | $40.35 |
| 08-24 02:09 | Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0306666667 | $2.76 |
| 08-24 02:09 | Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.749862069 | $86.98 |
| 08-24 02:08 | Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0195 | $1.56 |
| 07-26 23:53 | Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 1.5T yuan? | BUY | 0.9540459536 | $112.20 |
| 01-31 04:26 | Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026? | BUY | 0.879 | $113.49 |
| 10-19 01:09 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.93 | $105.55 |
| 10-02 03:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? | BUY | 0.03 | $3.07 |
| 10-02 03:36 | Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? | BUY | 0.09 | $9.00 |
| 08-26 13:10 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.77 | $90.56 |
| 03-20 13:54 | Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.20 |
| 03-05 01:31 | Will Trump say 'retard' or 'retarded' during the 2025 State of the Union? | BUY | 0.008 | $1.60 |
| 03-05 01:15 | Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7? | BUY | 0.019 | $0.42 |
| 02-20 08:31 | Will another party win the most seats in the next German election? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 02-20 08:31 | Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |