taut-dogwood
0x8debd189ffd74160f25e367bafaed61a9fea7062
- Realised P&L
- $48.1k
- Volume
- $2.75M
- Markets traded
- 530
- Open portfolio
- $13.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded530
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.926Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?
- +$2.0kat 0.956No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
- +$2.0kat 0.939Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$2.0kat 0.963No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$1.9kat 0.964Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 03:36 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting? | BUY | 0.95 | $53.48 |
| 09-16 18:37 | Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.992 | $216.30 |
| 09-16 18:30 | No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.974 | $27.57 |
| 09-16 18:19 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.984 | $171.22 |
| 09-16 18:19 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.983 | $198.46 |
| 09-16 18:19 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.982 | $4.91 |
| 09-16 14:11 | Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.99 | $198.00 |
| 09-16 04:56 | No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.924 | $55.44 |
| 09-16 01:31 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.992 | $787.23 |
| 09-16 01:31 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.0k |
| 09-15 15:40 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $167.15 |
| 09-15 06:03 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.992 | $131.07 |
| 09-15 05:18 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $128.74 |
| 09-14 02:54 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.984 | $10.43 |
| 09-08 21:28 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.98 | $9.80 |