PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

MaximusKappa

0x8dc8ee11a91dd7fa607c1046584c3f572614bb54

Realised P&L
$4.00
Volume
$2.9k
Markets traded
240
Open portfolio
$80.25

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded240
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration61.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration34.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.5100.715$28.01+$8.03
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.5300.725$27.36+$7.36
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? · Yes0.1870.018$24.77−$225.23
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3000.034$0.11−$0.89
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes0.5260.000$0.00−$2.00
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1850.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? · Yes0.5300.000$0.00−$5.00
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.2100.000$0.00−$1.00
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00−$1.00
Kash Patel out by June 30? · Yes0.5920.000$0.00−$20.00
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.3190.000$0.00−$2.00
Will England win on 2026-06-23? · Yes0.7600.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? · Yes0.3840.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? · Yes0.7700.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Starmer say "Investment" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · Yes0.8000.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-24 22:12Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?BUY0.2099998677$1.00
06-24 22:12Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?BUY0.29999982$1.00
06-24 22:12Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?BUY0.1099999032$1.00
06-24 22:09Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?BUY0.55$1.00
06-24 22:09Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY0.543999839$1.00
06-24 19:11Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?BUY0.3799999012$1.00
06-23 00:21Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?BUY0.66$1.00
06-23 00:21Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?BUY0.8799999648$1.00
06-23 00:21Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?BUY0.849999915$1.00
06-23 00:20Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY0.5099998317$1.00
06-23 00:20Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?BUY0.8299999087$1.00
06-23 00:20Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?BUY0.6499999675$5.00
06-23 00:20Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?BUY0.65$1.00
06-23 00:19Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?BUY0.3699998631$1.00
06-18 01:57Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.7199995392$1.00