agjhd
0x8db91708ce7e6a47ef398a2fac33732b005b0b44
- Realised P&L
- $-0.15
- Volume
- $303.32
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $54.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.975 | 0.970 | $45.74 | −$0.26 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.912 | 0.979 | $4.83 | +$0.33 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 22? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.555 | $2.22 | +$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on October 22? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.490 | $2.11 | −$0.09 |
| UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Colorado State Rams · UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.10 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Georgia Southern vs. Marshall · Marshall | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.57at 0.660Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
- +$2.41at 0.472Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 9?
- +$1.49at 0.432Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11?
- +$1.43at 0.677Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$1.35at 0.690Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 10:01 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 22? | BUY | 0.55 | $2.20 |
| 10-20 10:01 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on October 22? | BUY | 0.5099999397 | $2.20 |
| 10-20 10:00 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.974999983 | $46.00 |
| 07-19 10:55 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.51 | $10.32 |
| 07-19 10:54 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.55 | $4.38 |
| 07-08 02:03 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9849999998 | $28.00 |
| 07-08 02:02 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.8099999951 | $16.40 |
| 07-08 02:01 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8099998121 | $2.50 |
| 07-08 02:00 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 9? | BUY | 0.4599999211 | $2.10 |
| 06-10 07:15 | Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? | BUY | 0.4199998778 | $1.10 |
| 06-10 07:14 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $10.00 |
| 06-10 07:08 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY | 0.6999999696 | $2.30 |
| 06-10 07:07 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9929999286 | $12.00 |
| 06-10 07:07 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $4.40 |
| 05-09 14:55 | Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $5.00 |