0x8d877107916fc44a3a384bfb8deb9cd1157e96a7
0x8d877107916fc44a3a384bfb8deb9cd1157e96a7
- Realised P&L
- $13.76
- Volume
- $437.06
- Markets traded
- 119
- Open portfolio
- $10.71
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded119
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.475 | $1.40 | +$0.40 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.925 | $1.23 | +$0.23 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.855 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? · No | 0.798 | 0.911 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.435 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? · No | 0.660 | 0.665 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.275 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? · No | 0.690 | 0.640 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.275 | $0.83 | −$0.17 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.360 | $0.80 | −$0.20 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.050 | $0.19 | −$1.76 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$6.27at 0.247Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
- +$6.27at 0.247Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
- +$6.25at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 06:19 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 22:18 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:18 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 06:12 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:54 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:52 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 05:28 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7979998931 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:52 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:50 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:49 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:47 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399996448 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 11:45 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 03:45 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7739998731 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 19:26 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 11:25 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |