agreebera
0x8ccf3f4e55818a20b5172422303deedb6308a7a3
- Realised P&L
- $-88.97
- Volume
- $97.9k
- Markets traded
- 324
- Open portfolio
- $514.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded324
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · No | 0.979 | 0.997 | $199.30 | +$3.50 |
| Iran invades Kuwait by October 31? · No | 0.973 | 0.988 | $98.75 | +$1.45 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No | 0.940 | 0.945 | $94.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.915 | $67.58 | +$3.32 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? · No | 0.910 | 0.990 | $54.40 | +$4.40 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on May 17? · No | 0.998 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$165.57 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 30? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.90 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 17? · No | 0.995 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.07 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 30? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$397.15at 0.749Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of April 6 2026?
- +$264.10at 0.753Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 26?
- +$239.01at 0.752Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 27?
- +$224.58at 0.748Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 26?
- +$156.99at 0.750Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of March 30 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 03:41 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $94.00 |
| 09-08 10:29 | Iran invades Kuwait by October 31? | BUY | 0.973 | $97.30 |
| 08-25 12:50 | Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 6°C on August 25? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 08-25 12:50 | Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C on August 25? | BUY | 0.9896086718 | $126.44 |
| 08-25 12:44 | Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 18°C on August 25? | BUY | 0.99 | $130.28 |
| 08-25 12:38 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on August 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $930.68 |
| 08-25 12:37 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $106.86 |
| 08-25 12:37 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 26? | BUY | 0.997 | $159.52 |
| 08-06 12:50 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.979 | $195.80 |
| 08-04 07:36 | Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $19.50 |
| 08-04 07:35 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 07-30 04:01 | Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.3k |
| 07-21 07:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.987 | $54.28 |
| 07-21 07:30 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | BUY | 0.94 | $15.96 |
| 07-21 03:23 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 21? | BUY | 0.992 | $436.42 |