0x8cb9914761EcC57D44E466dDe0d3d13779282335-1738348052572
0x8cb9914761ecc57d44e466dde0d3d13779282335
- Realised P&L
- $27.02
- Volume
- $2.6k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $72.41
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.150 | 0.251 | $41.07 | +$16.53 |
| Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.213 | 0.135 | $15.79 | −$9.21 |
| Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.044 | $15.55 | −$9.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$107.05at 0.633Dodgers vs. Blue Jays
- +$19.00at 0.520Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
- +$14.00at 0.635Blue Jays vs. Dodgers
- +$-12.43at 0.550Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
- +$-40.95at 0.428Dodgers vs. Blue Jays
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 03:02 | Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2129999982 | $25.00 |
| 09-10 03:02 | Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0707322718 | $25.00 |
| 11-06 23:46 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.53 | $329.42 |
| 11-06 23:44 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5499999998 | $341.85 |
| 11-02 04:07 | Dodgers vs. Blue Jays | BUY | 0.8099999977 | $50.00 |
| 11-02 03:57 | Dodgers vs. Blue Jays | BUY | 0.4 | $2.05 |
| 10-25 00:12 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 | BUY | 0.52 | $26.00 |
| 10-25 00:12 | Dodgers vs. Blue Jays | BUY | 0.57 | $57.00 |
| 10-25 00:11 | Dodgers vs. Blue Jays | BUY | 0.45 | $29.48 |
| 10-25 00:10 | Dodgers vs. Blue Jays | BUY | 0.44 | $2.20 |