hmwhynot
0x8ca77a3a915e66ac508840dbc596f1c92b58ad36
- Realised P&L
- $-10.3k
- Volume
- $492.7k
- Markets traded
- 107
- Open portfolio
- $8.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded107
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%? · Yes | 0.453 | 0.965 | $6.6k | +$3.5k |
| Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.520 | $1.2k | +$0.23 |
| Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.973 | 0.975 | $525.00 | +$0.66 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.720 | 0.715 | $118.50 | −$0.83 |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić win the next Serbia presidential election? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.003 | $5.21 | −$7.15 |
| Will voter turnout be between 72% and 74% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.126 | 0.001 | $0.16 | −$39.84 |
| Will voter turnout be between 70% and 72% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.001 | $0.03 | −$0.97 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Solana Up or Down - October 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET · Up | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.567Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- +$507.80at 0.478Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 9?
- +$366.83at 0.212Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?
- +$185.27at 0.957Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
- +$95.38at 0.520Solana Up or Down - September 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:10 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%? | BUY | 0.9792408974 | $25.80 |
| 11-01 22:10 | Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? | SELL | 0.51 | $26.01 |
| 11-01 20:56 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%? | BUY | 0.9799545657 | $110.00 |
| 11-01 20:53 | Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? | SELL | 0.5079545455 | $111.75 |
| 11-01 20:46 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%? | BUY | 0.98 | $100.00 |
| 11-01 20:46 | Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? | SELL | 0.515 | $103.00 |
| 11-01 20:44 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%? | BUY | 0.98 | $101.00 |
| 11-01 20:44 | Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? | SELL | 0.515 | $103.00 |
| 11-01 20:32 | Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9887553814 | $50.00 |
| 11-01 20:31 | Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? | SELL | 0.51 | $51.00 |
| 11-01 19:09 | Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9851320598 | $361.00 |
| 11-01 18:36 | Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? | SELL | 0.53 | $53.00 |
| 11-01 18:36 | Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? | SELL | 0.525 | $52.50 |
| 11-01 18:35 | Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? | SELL | 0.5251422 | $262.57 |
| 11-01 17:43 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.7199999961 | $119.33 |