YOLO-FOMO
0x8ca1567a37c606fc560f50fde6ae35c309d5f2eb
- Realised P&L
- $-510.81
- Volume
- $19.4k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $108.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.115 | $77.05 | −$23.45 |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.022 | $8.58 | −$11.42 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.065 | $8.13 | −$11.88 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.045 | $5.63 | −$14.38 |
| Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.006 | $4.33 | −$15.67 |
| Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.002 | $3.08 | −$16.92 |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.027 | $1.63 | −$6.82 |
| Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.041 | $0.41 | −$0.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.67at 0.370Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?
- +$49.70at 0.290Will Israel strike Gaza on November 9?
- +$46.67at 0.300Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$44.16at 0.310Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?
- +$33.94at 0.300Will Joe Biden attend Dick Cheney's funeral?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-29 11:11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? | BUY | 0.06499998 | $3.00 |
| 05-29 11:01 | Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on May 29? | BUY | 0.32 | $30.00 |
| 05-29 11:01 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? | BUY | 0.5 | $20.00 |
| 05-29 11:00 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? | BUY | 0.5 | $20.00 |
| 05-29 10:57 | Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on May 29? | BUY | 0.2699999904 | $20.00 |
| 05-29 10:56 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.51 | $98.07 |
| 05-29 07:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? | BUY | 0.0787349911 | $15.00 |
| 05-29 07:21 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29? | BUY | 0.32 | $30.00 |
| 05-25 17:56 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? | BUY | 0.0899999845 | $5.00 |
| 05-25 17:53 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? | BUY | 0.0899999845 | $5.00 |
| 05-25 17:53 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? | BUY | 0.025 | $5.00 |
| 01-31 10:11 | Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.1395472864 | $20.00 |
| 01-31 10:09 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5199999983 | $100.00 |
| 01-31 10:07 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0524554238 | $20.00 |
| 01-31 10:07 | Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0299999986 | $20.00 |