johngarn
0x8c9a88a163f6943cd77f090da9f16e47cf85125a
- Realised P&L
- $-7.61
- Volume
- $379.33
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $96.55
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration67.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.284 | 0.265 | $65.39 | −$4.61 |
| Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany? · Yes | 0.173 | 0.165 | $14.33 | −$0.67 |
| Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? · No | 0.460 | 0.465 | $10.11 | +$0.11 |
| Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? · Yes | 0.417 | 0.280 | $6.72 | −$3.28 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 10:58 | Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? | BUY | 0.459999988 | $10.00 |
| 09-16 11:29 | Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany? | BUY | 0.1727272713 | $15.00 |
| 09-16 11:27 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999983 | $20.00 |
| 09-16 02:51 | Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? | BUY | 0.4167405513 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 19:39 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999989 | $50.00 |