AvidMound2949
0x8bf6ecb9cf49f55a682cda18b24e5ea6bea66c2f
- Realised P&L
- $-650.32
- Volume
- $43.0k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration77.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.095 | $2.4k | +$78.45 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.050 | $474.85 | −$216.32 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.034 | $131.00 | −$62.73 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.162 | 0.038 | $74.29 | −$241.78 |
| Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.081 | 0.007 | $9.20 | −$90.80 |
| Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.002 | $1.72 | −$48.28 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-19 13:29 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.161682209 | $316.07 |
| 08-19 13:28 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0437007963 | $50.00 |
| 08-19 13:27 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.08149634 | $100.00 |
| 07-18 14:03 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.0899999999 | $922.52 |
| 07-16 18:08 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.0599999936 | $8.41 |
| 07-16 18:04 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.0899999999 | $949.24 |
| 07-11 20:39 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.083385595 | $432.79 |
| 07-11 18:31 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.0495425332 | $193.74 |
| 07-11 18:30 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.0599999998 | $250.00 |
| 07-11 18:30 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.1168757182 | $500.00 |
| 07-11 17:59 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? | SELL | 0.0389778154 | $4.15 |
| 07-11 17:58 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.0469999914 | $5.00 |