ratcarcass
0x8bf2055a9a23f3fa974d9365580a43606a4e251c
- Realised P&L
- $816.23
- Volume
- $6.1k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $2.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar13.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.354 | 0.610 | $1.0k | +$434.78 |
| Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.218 | $612.16 | +$112.16 |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.750 | $545.79 | +$218.54 |
| Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.056 | $13.86 | +$1.95 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET · Down | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.96at 0.250Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
- +$1.45at 0.220Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
- +$0.35at 0.870Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs B8 (BO1)
- +$-2.00at 0.018Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
- +$-7.99at 0.860Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-22 00:18 | Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0476825408 | $11.91 |
| 08-20 16:23 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4496950725 | $327.25 |
| 08-20 16:23 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3599999987 | $100.00 |
| 08-20 16:23 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3524650719 | $500.00 |
| 08-20 16:22 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1784657935 | $500.00 |
| 12-04 20:54 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.26 | $50.85 |
| 12-04 20:14 | Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs B8 (BO1) | SELL | 0.93 | $5.34 |
| 12-04 20:06 | Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs B8 (BO1) | BUY | 0.8699999983 | $5.00 |
| 12-04 19:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 12-04 18:27 | Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET | SELL | 0.3 | $5.45 |
| 12-04 18:24 | Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET | BUY | 0.2199999593 | $4.00 |
| 12-04 18:19 | Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | SELL | 0.33 | $4.97 |
| 12-03 22:47 | Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | BUY | 0.8599999496 | $12.96 |
| 12-03 22:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 12-03 22:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |