PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

ratcarcass

0x8bf2055a9a23f3fa974d9365580a43606a4e251c

Realised P&L
$816.23
Volume
$6.1k
Markets traded
10
Open portfolio
$2.2k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar13.4%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded10
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration52.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample5 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration46.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.3540.610$1.0k+$434.78
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes0.1780.218$612.16+$112.16
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes0.4500.750$545.79+$218.54
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? · Yes0.0480.056$13.86+$1.95
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET · Down0.0500.000$0.00$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-22 00:18Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?BUY0.0476825408$11.91
08-20 16:23Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?BUY0.4496950725$327.25
08-20 16:23Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.3599999987$100.00
08-20 16:23Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.3524650719$500.00
08-20 16:22Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY0.1784657935$500.00
12-04 20:54Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?SELL0.26$50.85
12-04 20:14Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs B8 (BO1)SELL0.93$5.34
12-04 20:06Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs B8 (BO1)BUY0.8699999983$5.00
12-04 19:59Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ETBUY0.05$1.00
12-04 18:27Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ETSELL0.3$5.45
12-04 18:24Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ETBUY0.2199999593$4.00
12-04 18:19Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?SELL0.33$4.97
12-03 22:47Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?BUY0.8599999496$12.96
12-03 22:43Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ETBUY0.01$1.00
12-03 22:40Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ETBUY0.1$1.00