0x8be8a874f6f7e6924e552a79917a509af446f147
0x8be8a874f6f7e6924e552a79917a509af446f147
- Realised P&L
- $-12.19
- Volume
- $269.76
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $4.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? · No | 0.780 | 1.000 | $2.56 | +$0.56 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.942 | $1.29 | +$0.29 |
| Will Meta’s Q3 headcount be above 68000? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.670 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.62at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
- +$3.82at 0.351Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.65at 0.361Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?
- +$3.13at 0.390US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$2.94at 0.412Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 03:01 | Will Meta’s Q3 headcount be above 68000? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 19:00 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 22:48 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 21:31 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 08:12 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 00:12 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 18:47 | Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 07:49 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 23:35 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 06:10 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $570 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 21:52 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 11:41 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 21:42 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2229999349 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 11:48 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 02:41 | Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31? | BUY | 0.479999952 | $2.00 |