0x8b6cbd0dbb12cb35907dbd89c69d67cf9cdab2d8
0x8b6cbd0dbb12cb35907dbd89c69d67cf9cdab2d8
- Realised P&L
- $-163.36
- Volume
- $5.6k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $20.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · No | 0.420 | 0.340 | $12.14 | −$2.86 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.039 | $7.91 | −$2.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$51.71at 0.217Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$34.51at 0.310Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
- +$16.65at 0.558Bitcoin Up or Down on March 1?
- +$6.45at 0.825Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?
- +$5.56at 0.519Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 07:07 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.0492815997 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 21:10 | Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | SELL | 0.0397494314 | $16.78 |
| 10-31 18:33 | Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.0443271559 | $18.71 |
| 08-16 19:55 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 08-14 07:00 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.05 | $15.00 |
| 08-14 06:59 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.4199999922 | $15.00 |
| 07-19 21:43 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9269999949 | $4.00 |
| 07-19 21:42 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.122 | $4.56 |
| 07-19 21:15 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2664726513 | $9.95 |
| 07-19 21:14 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.198 | $10.76 |
| 07-15 20:45 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.329999964 | $5.96 |
| 07-15 20:44 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.081 | $6.49 |
| 07-14 20:24 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1939999904 | $15.55 |
| 07-14 20:23 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.238 | $12.05 |
| 07-14 20:21 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.051 | $4.50 |