gengis111
0x8b14a322db0e518ed3e3fbe69f65690f3787d0b1
- Realised P&L
- $-146.0k
- Volume
- $1.67M
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $7.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.554 | 0.125 | $4.1k | −$14.1k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.454 | 0.085 | $2.9k | −$12.7k |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.101 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.6k |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? · Yes | 0.398 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$159.31 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? · Yes | 0.382 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.5k |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? · No | 0.427 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.9k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? · Yes | 0.263 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.1k |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.737 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.3k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$948.98at 0.431Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?
- +$773.19at 0.574Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?
- +$432.16at 0.900Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?
- +$394.43at 0.716Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?
- +$322.37at 0.503Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 21:15 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6789595027 | $502.97 |
| 10-25 21:15 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6764441782 | $1000.00 |
| 10-25 20:49 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6499999999 | $800.00 |
| 10-25 13:16 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8 | $150.00 |
| 10-25 13:13 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.0k |
| 10-25 13:10 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8 | $800.00 |
| 10-25 13:09 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8 | $80.00 |
| 10-07 23:27 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0322418519 | $117.89 |
| 10-07 23:26 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.035 | $0.18 |
| 10-07 23:24 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0350262158 | $1.8k |
| 04-27 17:57 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | BUY | 0.25 | $981.20 |
| 04-27 16:41 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.8k |
| 04-27 15:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | BUY | 0.3141478583 | $465.26 |
| 04-27 12:33 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | BUY | 0.4499999999 | $1.8k |
| 04-27 12:28 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | BUY | 0.4499999999 | $1.8k |