stupid22
0x8afa03dd6974e44d00c4d14dcccb00c0ddf6adb6
- Realised P&L
- $-109.0k
- Volume
- $26.09M
- Markets traded
- 1,049
- Open portfolio
- $698.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,049
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration47.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.7kat 0.967Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
- +$19.9kat 0.947Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
- +$15.2kat 0.955Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
- +$12.4kat 0.970Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$10.4kat 0.948Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 14:05 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $77.24 |
| 11-01 14:01 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $110.89 |
| 11-01 13:58 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.4k |
| 11-01 08:10 | Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.967 | $635.37 |
| 11-01 07:42 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $26.6k |
| 11-01 07:23 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.978 | $457.17 |
| 10-31 16:46 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $985.29 |
| 10-31 14:30 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9819706314 | $668.72 |
| 10-31 13:48 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $987.67 |
| 10-31 13:03 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.3k |
| 10-30 15:21 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.973 | $49.80 |
| 10-30 11:56 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in October? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.4k |
| 10-30 07:53 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $930.20 |
| 10-29 10:45 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $24.90 |
| 10-28 16:01 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $702.04 |