PolyBot

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Traders

stupid22

0x8afa03dd6974e44d00c4d14dcccb00c0ddf6adb6

Realised P&L
$-109.0k
Volume
$26.09M
Markets traded
1,049
Open portfolio
$698.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,049
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration47.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? · No0.9370.935$217.1k−$387.13
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.8610.865$187.7k+$929.36
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9470.955$78.0k+$625.51
Iran leadership change by November 30? · No0.9320.915$25.6k−$491.43
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · No0.9610.986$25.2k+$640.96
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8600.825$24.7k−$1.0k
Cuban regime falls in 2026? · No0.8960.915$14.5k+$295.18
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? · No0.9070.963$12.8k+$737.57
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? · Yes0.7900.845$11.8k+$770.00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in November? · No0.9680.971$11.3k+$24.55
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? · Yes0.8160.655$10.5k−$2.6k
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No0.8800.945$9.9k+$677.87
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in November? · No0.9670.961$8.1k−$51.52
Israel Election: Arab party disqualified? · No0.9660.982$7.8k+$128.26
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.3290.403$7.6k+$1.4k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 14:05Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 30?BUY0.999$77.24
11-01 14:01Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 30?BUY0.999$110.89
11-01 13:58Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on November 1?BUY0.999$1.4k
11-01 08:10Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?BUY0.967$635.37
11-01 07:42Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.95$26.6k
11-01 07:23Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?BUY0.978$457.17
10-31 16:46Iran leadership change by October 31?SELL0.999$985.29
10-31 14:30US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?BUY0.9819706314$668.72
10-31 13:48Iran leadership change by October 31?BUY0.998$987.67
10-31 13:03Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?SELL0.999$3.3k
10-30 15:21Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY0.973$49.80
10-30 11:56Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in October?SELL0.999$1.4k
10-30 07:53Iran leadership change by October 31?BUY0.997$930.20
10-29 10:45Iran leadership change by October 31?BUY0.996$24.90
10-28 16:01Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 28?BUY0.999$702.04