stupid22
0x8afa03dd6974e44d00c4d14dcccb00c0ddf6adb6
- Realised P&L
- $-100.1k
- Volume
- $22.80M
- Markets traded
- 827
- Open portfolio
- $714.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded827
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.7kat 0.967Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
- +$19.9kat 0.947Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
- +$15.2kat 0.955Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
- +$12.4kat 0.970Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$10.4kat 0.948Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 15:58 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $970.16 |
| 09-16 12:34 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in September? | BUY | 0.997 | $0.72 |
| 09-16 12:33 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in September? | BUY | 0.993 | $121.25 |
| 09-16 07:00 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September? | BUY | 0.974 | $221.73 |
| 09-15 06:41 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.52 | $2.6k |
| 09-15 06:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.988 | $3.3k |
| 09-14 12:07 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.4k |
| 09-14 06:50 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.491 | $12.28 |
| 09-14 06:43 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.50 |
| 09-13 12:24 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $157.65 |
| 09-13 11:07 | Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.77 | $176.33 |
| 09-13 11:06 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.48 | $120.48 |
| 09-12 13:45 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.974 | $381.32 |
| 09-11 17:14 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.53 | $132.49 |
| 09-11 15:09 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.539 | $539.00 |