bpna
0x8aed61e6cec4ca693ace62ea6c23a5770cf1468f
- Realised P&L
- $-22.77
- Volume
- $1.0k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $360.25
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration88.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? · Yes | 0.639 | 0.610 | $226.76 | −$10.94 |
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.379 | 0.495 | $81.58 | +$19.08 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.761 | 0.433 | $39.01 | −$29.51 |
| Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.925 | $9.25 | +$1.95 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.205 | $2.05 | −$0.85 |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.155 | $1.55 | −$1.05 |
| Will Gabriel Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.003 | $0.04 | −$0.96 |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.20 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.63at 0.845Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
- +$1.82at 0.818Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on July 19?
- +$-0.08at 0.826Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?
- +$-8.94at 0.470US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 19:59 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 19:58 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2699999806 | $10.00 |
| 09-01 19:58 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2699999806 | $10.00 |
| 09-01 19:58 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2699999808 | $9.00 |
| 08-22 10:50 | Will Gabriel Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.064 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 10:48 | Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.604259533 | $100.00 |
| 08-22 10:47 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0229509755 | $0.46 |
| 08-11 14:25 | Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.64 | $100.00 |
| 08-11 14:23 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | SELL | 0.83 | $41.50 |
| 07-31 14:37 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | SELL | 0.992 | $99.16 |
| 07-30 22:33 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.762 | $30.48 |
| 07-30 22:32 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.63 | $25.20 |
| 07-30 22:32 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 07-27 17:16 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | BUY | 0.82 | $41.00 |
| 07-22 12:10 | Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.77 | $30.80 |