3479823
0x8ae236c44ff7d8a27b1dd554db4155814e2b1070
- Realised P&L
- $-239.12
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $499.13
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-13.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration46.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.445 | $158.93 | −$41.07 |
| Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.930 | $136.76 | +$36.76 |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? · Yes | 0.479 | 0.415 | $129.92 | −$20.08 |
| Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.608 | 0.790 | $65.01 | +$15.01 |
| Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.032 | $8.51 | −$191.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$27.23at 0.651Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?
- +$16.11at 0.826Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
- +$15.86at 0.753Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
- +$-100.00at 0.780US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 02:46 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.9595947519 | $117.02 |
| 09-08 11:57 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.4791395038 | $150.00 |
| 09-07 01:28 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999938 | $100.00 |
| 09-07 01:23 | Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.99 | $66.39 |
| 08-30 00:15 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.64 | $50.00 |
| 08-29 20:43 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.7799999995 | $100.00 |
| 08-29 20:41 | Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.6799999981 | $100.00 |
| 08-29 20:41 | Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.7455268388 | $50.00 |
| 08-29 20:40 | Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.74 | $199.80 |
| 08-29 20:31 | Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6075697187 | $50.00 |
| 08-29 20:20 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.559999999 | $200.00 |