0x8985f5c4caaa0ee6ccdf71084bb9a9d41115abd5
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $8.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration36.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing Ever Happens: October · Nothing | 0.930 | 0.996 | $4.98 | +$0.33 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.385 | $1.96 | −$0.74 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (LOW) in December? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.285 | $1.12 | −$0.18 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.52at 0.540Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$4.60at 0.6602024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House
- +$3.36at 0.602Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$3.30at 0.668Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$1.40at 0.390Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 11:20 | Nothing Ever Happens: October | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 10-04 01:53 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $2.65 |
| 10-04 01:53 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999607 | $2.70 |
| 10-04 01:52 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999607 | $2.70 |
| 10-04 01:51 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999848 | $1.90 |
| 10-03 10:58 | Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? | SELL | 0.74 | $3.71 |
| 10-03 10:56 | Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? | BUY | 0.76 | $1.30 |
| 10-03 10:55 | Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? | BUY | 0.7599999595 | $1.50 |
| 10-03 10:48 | Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? | BUY | 0.7599998495 | $1.01 |
| 10-03 10:36 | Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? | SELL | 0.74 | $7.33 |
| 10-03 10:35 | Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? | BUY | 0.76 | $3.80 |
| 09-22 05:28 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | SELL | 0.996 | $3.77 |
| 09-16 20:18 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.75 |
| 09-13 11:42 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.934999863 | $3.55 |
| 09-13 11:41 | Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? | BUY | 0.5499999898 | $2.70 |