olehivna
0x8946affd6a8710cfd4f7e70d3906f32d679b1089
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $15.5k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $884.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x China tariff agreement by October 31? · Yes | 0.867 | 0.890 | $360.28 | +$9.38 |
| US x China tariff agreement by September 30? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.815 | $149.75 | −$0.92 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.061 | 0.064 | $127.20 | +$4.85 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.065 | $90.93 | −$11.03 |
| Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.916 | 0.330 | $53.74 | −$95.43 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.065 | $49.31 | −$11.38 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.685 | $34.08 | +$0.25 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.385 | $18.95 | −$6.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$821.88at 0.165US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
- +$816.51at 0.073Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?
- +$82.44at 0.852Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?
- +$45.09at 0.665US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina
- +$44.58at 0.863Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 12:58 | China PR vs. Maldives: O/U 2.5 | SELL | 0.99 | $389.07 |
| 09-24 12:58 | China PR vs. Maldives: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.981043257 | $385.55 |
| 09-24 01:48 | US x China tariff agreement by October 31? | BUY | 0.8668338705 | $350.90 |
| 09-23 23:24 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $39.80 |
| 09-23 23:05 | US x China tariff agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.819999996 | $81.55 |
| 09-23 23:00 | US x China tariff agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.8199999993 | $69.12 |
| 09-23 20:18 | Bahamas vs. Saint-Martin: O/U 3.5 | SELL | 0.64 | $5.67 |
| 09-23 20:16 | Bahamas vs. Saint-Martin: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.6099999628 | $5.41 |
| 09-23 13:00 | Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.976772248 | $49.72 |
| 09-23 13:00 | Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.8883086313 | $99.45 |
| 09-23 02:34 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $20.89 |
| 09-22 19:27 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9900864828 | $881.52 |
| 09-22 19:27 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $985.51 |
| 09-22 08:50 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.0639837943 | $55.67 |
| 09-22 02:42 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.064 | $28.31 |