crcrycryycry
0x88f306921bf464f440ad3d18a440d4f40a6ee7fb
- Realised P&L
- $-87.0k
- Volume
- $585.9k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $13.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-14.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration88.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.947 | 0.945 | $9.3k | −$18.99 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.940 | 0.945 | $3.8k | +$20.01 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.950 | 0.979 | $103.00 | +$3.00 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2028 elections? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.650 | $65.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.705 | $21.14 | −$0.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.7kat 0.895Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$709.43at 0.942Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$339.60at 0.862Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$189.68at 0.954Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- +$104.52at 0.784Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 16:43 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.71 | $21.29 |
| 10-31 13:19 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $6.5k |
| 10-31 13:19 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $950.00 |
| 10-31 13:16 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $950.00 |
| 10-30 10:41 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2028 elections? | BUY | 0.66 | $66.00 |
| 10-29 15:44 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.93 | $674.25 |
| 10-29 14:14 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.94 | $2.8k |
| 10-26 00:33 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.7k |
| 10-26 00:02 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.994 | $99.40 |
| 10-26 00:02 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.993 | $2.6k |
| 10-25 23:24 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.94 | $8.7k |
| 10-25 22:57 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.774 | $77.40 |
| 10-25 22:24 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.0375798933 | $2.0k |
| 10-25 22:24 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.0039907007 | $60.18 |
| 10-25 22:24 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.159892795 | $9.6k |