QuietRiskisWrong
0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a
- Realised P&L
- $634.1k
- Volume
- $11.69M
- Markets traded
- 351
- Open portfolio
- $845.2k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded351
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$255.1kat 0.422Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$197.2kat 0.438US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$47.4kat 0.604Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$41.7kat 0.531US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
- +$36.8kat 0.560US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:48 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.9900852509 | $15.2k |
| 08-02 21:20 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.8899999987 | $63.91 |
| 08-02 21:20 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.9809819818 | $49.00 |
| 08-02 21:19 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.97999545 | $196.00 |
| 08-02 21:18 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.9789999955 | $97.00 |
| 08-02 21:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.9896530258 | $7.6k |
| 08-02 21:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.981 | $912.00 |
| 08-02 21:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.9799090149 | $1.1k |
| 08-02 21:16 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $10.0k |
| 08-02 21:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.8799999985 | $273.00 |
| 08-02 21:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.98 | $231.00 |
| 08-02 21:14 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $503.99 |
| 08-02 21:14 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.9794971768 | $224.00 |
| 08-02 21:14 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.9879999993 | $783.00 |
| 08-02 21:13 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.0k |