34fb
0x883c20797771432949a95268f7c4088ee5bb3105
- Realised P&L
- $-95.28
- Volume
- $99.0k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $10.12
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.001 | $6.54 | −$111.25 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.996 | 1.000 | $1.19 | +$0.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.996 | 1.000 | $1.19 | +$0.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.19 | +$0.00 |
| Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.70at 0.006Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$3.54at 0.963Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
- +$0.49at 0.977Will someone else be inaugurated?
- +$0.08at 0.992Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?
- +$0.02at 0.997Will Alexander Isak win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 04:11 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.19 |
| 09-09 04:11 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.19 |
| 09-09 04:10 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.19 |
| 07-02 13:02 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on July 2? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.09 |
| 07-02 13:00 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 36°C on July 2? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.09 |
| 07-02 13:00 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on July 2? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.08 |
| 05-04 16:50 | Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.21 |
| 05-04 16:49 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 4? | BUY | 0.9969999993 | $1.50 |
| 03-12 15:39 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.20 |
| 03-12 15:38 | Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 12? | BUY | 0.9969999991 | $1.11 |
| 03-04 07:36 | Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.009 | $117.79 |
| 03-04 07:35 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 4? | BUY | 0.9859999981 | $1.05 |
| 03-04 07:35 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 4? | BUY | 0.9969999991 | $1.15 |
| 12-14 23:35 | Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.006 | $40.98 |
| 12-14 23:34 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.25 |