avaaweb3
0x88241f2e6643d7e08604aa025ae7b1ff42e4ff96
- Realised P&L
- $-153.66
- Volume
- $19.8k
- Markets traded
- 313
- Open portfolio
- $23.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded313
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.19at 0.856Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
- +$10.81at 0.785Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance
- +$6.88at 0.921Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$5.60at 0.430Ukraine strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by July 31, 2026?
- +$5.40at 0.260Iran successfully targets shipping on August 8, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 16:52 | Trump renames AI by October 31? | BUY | 0.45 | $4.50 |
| 09-28 11:32 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | SELL | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 09-27 19:28 | Next DeepSeek Pro released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $3.80 |
| 09-27 12:23 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $5.20 |
| 09-27 11:19 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $5.60 |
| 09-24 05:49 | Will Trump praise Elon Musk in September? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.40 |
| 09-22 20:06 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.38 | $3.80 |
| 09-22 16:27 | Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $1.20 |
| 09-22 16:17 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $1.40 |
| 09-22 15:27 | Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.172 | $0.86 |
| 09-21 18:34 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.956 | $95.60 |
| 09-21 17:52 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 25, 2026? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.12 |
| 09-21 15:30 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.221 | $2.21 |
| 09-21 15:27 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.05 |
| 09-21 12:23 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.145 | $1.45 |