0x8725c11ca8B9b8743eeb391A39BcA846a90b9F91-1781439878508
0x8725c11ca8b9b8743eeb391a39bca846a90b9f91
- Realised P&L
- $-17.04
- Volume
- $636.56
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $7.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)59.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.038 | $3.25 | −$0.75 |
| Will NewJeans release a song in 2026? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.485 | $1.10 | −$0.90 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.616 | 0.621 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.235 | $0.90 | −$0.10 |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.787 | 0.699 | $0.89 | −$0.11 |
| Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on September 10? · Down | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will "Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber ft. Nicki Minaj" be the #2 song this week? · No | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30? · No | 0.267 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.59at 0.875Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 14, 2026?
- +$0.87at 0.948Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$0.80at 0.562Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 7?
- +$0.28at 0.779Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?
- +$0.26at 0.792Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 20:11 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.6159998571 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 11:36 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.0431795877 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 14:37 | OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30? | BUY | 0.2689999362 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 14:37 | OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30? | BUY | 0.2665958304 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 14:35 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.0389999995 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 11:41 | Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 19:11 | Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999851 | $7.00 |
| 09-10 19:09 | Will NewJeans release a song in 2026? | BUY | 0.8799997184 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 19:09 | Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.00 |
| 09-10 03:01 | Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on September 10? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 16:40 | Will "72 Hours" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.0126202439 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 16:40 | Will "Minions" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.0127693536 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 06:19 | Will "In the Land of Saints and Sinners" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.0299999712 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 06:18 | Will "The Last House" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.0289999724 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 06:18 | Will "Don't Say Good Luck" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.032 | $1.00 |