0x871becff0e29cb840c73deb4c419afff2aae961c
0x871becff0e29cb840c73deb4c419afff2aae961c
- Realised P&L
- $49.43
- Volume
- $873.69
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $148.76
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.745 | $50.33 | +$0.34 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.755 | $50.33 | +$0.33 |
| Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.540 | $24.11 | −$0.89 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.290 | 0.275 | $18.97 | −$1.03 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.695 | $5.03 | +$0.04 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$38.16at 0.351Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?
- +$27.66at 0.480Will Trump say "Border" 20+ times during his Midterm Rally in Arizona?
- +$7.15at 0.876Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in September?
- +$2.71at 0.788West Indies Tour of India T20s: India vs West Indies
- +$0.30at 0.865Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 16:05 | Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | BUY | 0.56 | $25.00 |
| 10-14 23:30 | Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat? | SELL | 0.2275832033 | $17.51 |
| 10-14 23:30 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.843 | $47.88 |
| 10-14 21:05 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $49.99 |
| 10-14 14:22 | Will Trump say "Border" 20+ times during his Midterm Rally in Arizona? | BUY | 0.47 | $25.00 |
| 10-13 09:25 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $49.99 |
| 10-12 13:14 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.4199999966 | $20.00 |
| 10-12 11:47 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999966 | $20.00 |
| 10-12 11:47 | Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat? | BUY | 0.2599999997 | $20.00 |
| 10-12 11:47 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.2899999968 | $20.00 |
| 10-12 06:28 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.86 | $49.99 |
| 10-11 20:24 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in September? | BUY | 0.87 | $50.00 |
| 10-11 14:25 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $5.00 |
| 10-11 13:53 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.88 | $44.99 |
| 10-11 12:39 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.88 | $5.00 |