FIFA26
0x86f39cb43e8a56bf5d7bad897bb9112de19e2cf1
- Realised P&L
- $-719.34
- Volume
- $26.2k
- Markets traded
- 201
- Open portfolio
- $28.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded201
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.631 | 0.735 | $17.47 | +$2.47 |
| New COVID variant of concern before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.120 | $7.06 | −$2.94 |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.140 | $2.80 | −$2.20 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.034 | $1.48 | −$8.52 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$85.39at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
- +$51.28at 0.320Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
- +$49.92at 0.050Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
- +$35.45at 0.220Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
- +$35.01at 0.588Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 22:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET | SELL | 0.5364170507 | $55.87 |
| 07-09 22:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET | BUY | 0.6899999968 | $50.00 |
| 07-09 22:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET | BUY | 0.72626843 | $50.00 |
| 07-09 22:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET | BUY | 0.4799999981 | $50.00 |
| 07-09 22:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.0244792049 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 22:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.179999987 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 22:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | SELL | 0.5 | $56.81 |
| 07-09 22:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.4399999975 | $50.00 |
| 07-09 22:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.5499999956 | $50.00 |
| 07-09 22:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | SELL | 0.2749389346 | $57.86 |
| 07-09 22:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | SELL | 0.73 | $7.61 |
| 07-09 22:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | BUY | 0.2376107936 | $50.00 |
| 07-09 22:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | SELL | 0.69 | $62.72 |
| 07-09 22:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | BUY | 0.5499999956 | $50.00 |
| 07-09 22:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | SELL | 0.67 | $54.92 |